By Dr. Sagir S. Buhari, FCIA
According to Political scientist Harold D. Lasswell, politics is fundamentally about “who gets what, when, and how,” emphasizing the competition for power and resources that shapes political action and decision-making.
The 2023 presidential election results in Kano State sent a resounding political message that cannot be ignored. Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the NNPP secured 997,279 votes, decisively defeating the ruling APC candidate, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who polled 517,341 votes in Kano State. Nationally, Kwankwaso finished fourth with approximately 1,496,687 votes, while Tinubu amassed about 8,794,726 votes nationwide. Notably, Lagos State gave Tinubu his highest votes 572,606 followed by Kano (517,341) and Katsina (482,283), underscoring the strategic importance of Kano’s electorate.
In addition to Kano, Tinubu scored significant votes in several other states, demonstrating both strongholds and vulnerabilities. For instance, he secured 449,884 votes in Oyo State, 421,390 votes in Jigawa State, and 375,183 votes in Niger State, illustrating the mixed nature of his support across the federation.
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These figures go beyond mere numbers they reflect the consequences of political disunity. Kano State remains one of Nigeria’s most strategically significant electoral blocs, and any party that fails to organize effectively risks losing influence both locally and nationally. The stark gap between APC and NNPP votes in Kano underscores the dangers of internal factionalism and weak party cohesion.
Kano Gubernatorial Context: Abba Kabir Yusuf vs Dr. Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna
The 2023 Kano State gubernatorial election further illustrates the political dynamics in the state. Abba Kabir Yusuf of the NNPP emerged victorious with 1,019,602 votes, while his closest opponent, Dr. Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna, former Deputy Governor and APC gubernatorial candidate, received 890,705 votes. These results highlight the formidable support for NNPP in Kano and the narrow margin by which APC lost, emphasizing the critical need for party unity ahead of future elections.
Tinubu’s Political Strategy: Pragmatism, Alliances, and Vote Consolidation
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is widely recognized as one of Nigeria’s most astute political strategists. His approach combines pragmatism, coalition-building, and tactical patience, all designed to maximize electoral advantage and consolidate power.
Given the nearly one million votes Kwankwaso secured in Kano, along with the significant influence of Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje’s political camp, it is highly likely that Tinubu’s 2027 strategy will focus on consolidating these powerful vote blocs into a single political force. By uniting supporters from both Kwankwaso and Ganduje, Tinubu can transform previously opposing forces into a strategically decisive coalition, bolstering APC’s chances in Kano and nationally.
Tinubu’s strategy has always focused on winning winnable votes and forming pragmatic coalitions, rather than relying solely on party loyalty or sentiment. Kano’s vote bank is too strategically important to ignore, and consolidating support from both camps could be decisive in 2027 if Kano APC leaders fail to present a united and credible front.
The Urgency for APC Unity in Kano
In 2023, the APC in Kano entered the elections deeply divided, weakened by internal rivalries, leadership tussles and unresolved political grievances. This fragmentation allowed Kwankwaso’s NNPP to mobilize effectively. The lesson is clear: a divided party cannot withstand a united opponent, and the consequences extend far beyond local politics.
As the 2027 Presidential election approaches, APC leaders in Kano must recognize that Tinubu’s strategy will naturally focus on maximizing votes through alliances, especially in states where APC is vulnerable. If the party remains fragmented, the President may be compelled to negotiate with Senator Kwankwaso, Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf or other influential blocs to secure Kano’s decisive votes.
Call to Action
This scenario should serve as a wake-up call for Kano APC leaders. Elders, elected officials, party executives, and grassroots mobilizers must rise above personal ambitions and factional interests. Differences must be resolved through dialogue, reconciliation, and compromise, not prolonged rivalry or sabotage. Unity is no longer optional it is a necessity for survival, relevance, and victory.
A united APC in Kano can reclaim lost ground, energize its grassroots base, and negotiate from a position of strength at the national level. It ensures that Kano remains central to political decision-making and continues to benefit from federal presence and goodwill. Conversely, continued fragmentation risks marginalizing the party and creating openings for Tinubu to align with Senator Kwankwaso potentially reshaping the electoral map.
The nearly one million votes secured by Senator Kwankwaso in Kano, coupled with his national influence, cannot be ignored in any serious electoral calculation. Likewise, the 1,019,602 votes won by Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf demonstrate the NNPP’s strong grassroots appeal in Kano, a factor that APC must contend with if it hopes to reclaim dominance.
Kano APC is blessed with influential leaders, including Deputy Senate President Distinguished Senator Barau I Jibrin, Distinguished Senator Abdulrahman Kawu Sumaila, His Excellency, Dr. Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna, former Deputy Governor and 2023 APC Kano Gubernatorial candidate, Chairman House Committee on Appropriation Hon. Abubakar Kabir Abubakar Bichi, Hon. Murtala Sule Garo Former, APC Kano Deputy Gubernatorial Candidate in 2023, and numerous other political heavyweights from Kano Central, Kano South, and Kano North. It is time for these leaders to unite and leverage their collective influence.
The message is clear APC leaders in Kano must unite now, resolve internal conflicts, and present a credible, cohesive front. Failure to do so will likely prompt President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to forge an alliance with Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, drawing on Kwankwaso’s massive vote bloc to strengthen his position in 2027. Unity is not optional; it is the decisive factor for the party’s survival and relevance in Kano and nationally.
May Allah (SWT) choose the best leaders for us.
Dr. Sagir S. Buhari, FCIA
(Studied Political Science and International Relations)
buharisageer@gmail.com
14th December, 2025
